The HVAC Market
Trends would indicate that the HVAC industry is responding to a robust market and that the market is significantly influenced by a concern for energy and the environment. Advancements in technology are responding to those concerns.
According to ARI, the value of shipments by U.S. HVAC manufacturers exceeded $28 billion U.S. in 1996. With 52,000 CFC chillers yet to be replaced in the U.S. alone, there remains a large market for new chillers, new technology, and new opportunities for the HVAC industry. In 1998 the U.S. manufactured 7558 non-CFC chillers for use in the U.S. and abroad. ARI indicates that the new, non-CFC chillers will be 40 percent more efficient than the CFC units installed 20 years ago. With less energy consumption comes lower CO2 emissions from electrical generating plants.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency predicts that by the year 2000, 44 percent of the CFC chillers that existed in the early 90’s will be replaced or converted. As a result, energy consumption will be reduced by 7 billion-kilowatt hours/year compared to that before replacement began. |
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Influences on HVAC Applications:
Buildings have a significant impact on our global resources. ARI reports that in the U.S., 5.5 quads of energy are consumed in commercial buildings each year. Comfort cooling and refrigeration account for the largest portion of this (48%). Overall, buildings in the U.S. consume about 35% of the country’s total energy consumption.
As scientists, engineers, and technicians, we tend to feel that advances in the industry are primarily in response to advances in technology and a consumer demand for that technology. Technology is indeed important but much of the change in our industry is in reaction to other influences. The following is a description of some of these influences.
Energy: Few doubt that the energy we presently use is finite. The engineer who designs or operates equipment and systems has a commitment to minimizing energy use for the long-term benefit of humanity, as well as to save costs for his or her client or employer. In the U.S. the primary driver for energy conservation is not necessarily the finality of the source but the cost savings. Therefore operating costs are major influence in the adoption of new technology.
Energy supplies also have a strong political influence, not only between producing and consuming countries but also within countries where distribution inequities, taxing authority, and other political issues can influence policies that have little or no technical basis. The national security of a country may be dependent on a reliable flow of energy and therefore decisions regarding its use and availability may or may not directly impact equipment and system design.
We can anticipate that energy efficiency will continue to play a dominant role in our designs. We should not assume that we must sacrifice comfort for the sake of energy. Our challenge is to provide comfort while at the same time conserving energy.
Environment: The environment has possibly had more influence on HVAC technology than has energy. The environment will continue to impact our industry into the foreseeable future.
Ozone depletion is a global issue that is still being resolved. Developing countries are still permitted to produce CFC’s and are doing so in record volume. Illegal imports of CFC’s to the U.S. and other countries are a continuing concern. Much of the illegal imports are virgin CFC’s.
Likewise, local governments or groups of governments that attempt to ignore the Montreal Protocol cause major disruptions in the planned phaseout of refrigerants. For example attempts to accelerate the phaseout of HCFC’s will ultimately have damaging effects on our environment. As Ted Rees, President of ARI explains, early phaseout of HCFC’s will encourage use of CFC’s, particularly in developing countries, because HCFC alternatives are threatened with premature phaseout. In addition, trade barriers will negatively effect our industry,globally, without a benefit to society.
Policies regarding climate change have also directly impacted our industry. As we design and operate more energy-efficient equipment and systems, we use less energy, energy that, in many cases, comes from burning CO2-producing fossil fuels.
An interesting anomaly resulting from climate change is the new design conditions that are evolving for buildings as climate zones shift.
Like energy, the environment will continue to impact our industry. Fortunately our industry has proven that it can respond in a timely way. As we developed new, environmentally friendly products, those products are also more energy efficient. Each of us has an obligation to adopt these new technologies and support research that will help our industry meet the challenges of the future.
Human Factors: Worker productivity will become a significant factor in the way we design, install and operate our environmental control systems. Annual energy costs for an office building in the U.S. is approximately 45 to 90 Nlg/m2/year. Maintenance and other building and operating costs are similar. The cost to rent or own the property is approximately 225 to 900 Nlg/m2/yr. The total cost of personnel who occupy that building ranges from 4500 to 9000 Nlg/m2/yr. The point here is that although the cost of energy can and should be minimized, it should not be done at the expense of the productivity of the worker. Safety, health, comfort, and productivity are certainly influenced by the HVAC system. Air quality, noise, temperature, humidity control, and, in some cases, radiant heat transfer are all controllable variables. As important as good design is, it is equally important that the system be operated to assure a quality environment.
Beyond the immediate impact on the occupant, the level of control of the environment is also somewhat governed by occupant expectations. For example, in the U.S. occupants dress for indoor conditions that will be somewhat uniform regardless of exterior conditions. Whereas in some countries, this level of control may not be expected, particularly with regards to air-conditioning, in the U.S. temperature control has a major impact on occupant satisfaction.
As we better understand the impact of the environment on worker productivity, we will see an increased use of individual environmental control systems. Here each occupant will be able to select his or her preferred dry bulb temperature, air velocity, and possibly radiant and wet bulb temperature. Some systems will even provide a white noise generator that is under the control of the occupant.
Political: Adoption of building standards will increase. Whereas standards based on sound technical information and decisions are usually of benefit to a global society, those that have political overtones, particularly those that create a protectionism of local commerce, have a negative effect on those outside as well as inside the country.
The dialogue between ISO, CEN, and other multinational standard writing bodies is both commendable and productive. As engineers, we must continue to support the creation of standards based on a consensus of the industry and help avoid undue political influence. The sharing of knowledge through conferences such as this, scholarly publications, and cooperative activities of technical societies will contribute to technical rather than political-based standards.
We can anticipate that global standards for design of equipment and systems will increase. This should not necessarily be interpreted as negative or restrictive to our designs because, if the standards are based on sound technical information, they will provide the collective knowledge of engineers from throughout the world.
Societal: The engineer, scientist, and technician can make a major contribution toward satisfying the goal to conserve energy and to minimize the impact of our industry on the environment. He or she also has an obligation to assure that an interest in sustainability continues.
A growing societal ethic exists for protecting our environment and extending the availability of our natural resources. "Green Buildings" and sustainability are in-vogue terms at the moment. It is the author’s observation that this ethic is particularly strong in northern European countries. Although countries that have only limited or no domestic sources of energy have reasons of national security to be energy conscious, the commitment of the general public in many of those countries goes well beyond national security issues.
Communication: As engineers, we have an obligation to verify that the information we use whether received verbally, in print or on the Web is sound in principle and applicable to our client’s need.
Instant global communication has become commonplace, particularly in developed countries. As the author prepared for this conference, virtually all of the communication with TVVL was via the Internet. Similarly, engineers are regularly transmitting plans and specifications for new equipment and systems. We can now be interactive in real-time with engineers in multiple locations throughout the globe, while we work simultaneously on the same drawing, set of plans, or document. Visual communication via computer desktop video allows us to converse face to face. What impact will this have on our industry? It will be significant and totally positive. We can now instantly share information regardless of our location. We can draw on the knowledge of individuals throughout the globe as we design and operate systems for the comfort and health of our building occupants.
In addition, the Internet gives us access to a vast array of current technology that was previously unavailable. Geographic location is no longer an issue as we access the World Wide Web.
